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MIR (Modernization. Innovation. Research)

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Vol 15, No 4 (2024)
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https://doi.org/10.18184//2079-4665.2024.15.4

MODERNIZATION

520-537 267
Abstract

Purpose: is to evaluate the effectiveness of adaptation scenarios to the external economic constraints of the regional economy, taking into account changes in the structural characteristics of the industrial sector.

Methods: to determine the "sufficient" and "necessary" conditions for effective adaptation of regions to foreign economic constraints, the study used qualitative comparative analysis using fuzzy sets (fsQCA) and the Quine-McCluskey algorithm. 27 combinations of qualitative characteristics of regional adaptation have been identified, taking into account changes in the sectoral structure of production, the degree of openness of the economy, the level of manufacturability and innovation of products. Simplification of logical expressions made it possible to identify 6 scenarios and evaluate their effectiveness as the dynamism of industrial production growth.

Results: the generalization of scientific publications on the research topic and the analysis of the practice of adapting regions to foreign economic constraints in 2008, 2014-2015 made it possible to identify three basic scenarios: "conservation", "reconstruction" and "restructuring" of the industrial profile of the region. Equifinality has been established when adaptation results similar in terms of industrial production dynamics are observed in regions with different combinations of structural changes in the industrial profile. Refined adaptation scenarios have been identified that contribute to the dynamization of recovery growth and subsequent economic development of the regions.

Conclusions and Relevance: it has been established that foreign economic constraints produce structural changes in the industrial profile of the regions. The response of regions to external shocks is specific in terms of the scale and directions of structural changes. Effective adaptation scenarios have been identified, and recommendations have been formulated to improve the structural and industrial policies of the regions for the period of restrictions in 2022.

538-557 187
Abstract

Purpose: is to substantiate the need to improve the partnership between the state, business, universities and civil society in the field of generative artificial intelligence.

Methods: the research is based on the application of theoretical and empirical analysis methods, including: logical, retrospective, generalization, modeling, comparison, statistical, observation, data visualization.

Results: the article provides arguments confirming the relevance of generative artificial intelligence by its key stakeholders. The necessity of developing models of institutional interactions for building the new format of stakeholder interaction based on the principle of partial intersection of their institutional spheres of influence, coupled with the urgent demands of civil society, is substantiated. The analysis of the reasons for the interest of the state and business in using solutions based on artificial intelligence in their activities is carried out. Special attention is paid to the attitude of universities to the responsible introduction of generative artificial intelligence into the scientific and educational environment and its use in the solving educational and professional tasks. The improved model of partnership between the state, business, universities and civil society in the field of generative artificial intelligence is proposed.

Conclusions and Relevance: partnership in the field of scientific and technological progress allows us to take into account the interests and needs of its key stakeholders, as well as emerging opportunities for them to develop a new role status in the development and use of generative artificial intelligence. The recommended partnership model of key stakeholders allows for the aggregation of financial and production resources of business, competencies and scientific potential of universities in joint projects to develop solutions in the field of development and use of generative artificial intelligence, which can give a significant synergistic effect if this collaboration is complemented by state participation. Inclusion in the model of civil society will ensure that its requests for the preservation of universal values are combined in decisions on the use of generative artificial intelligence and will give a human-centered character to scientific and technological progress in the context of digitalization of society.

558-575 205
Abstract

Purpose: of the presented research is to characterize the educational potential of the population based on an integrated assessment of educational activities and the material, technical and information base of education in the subjects of the Russian Federation.

Methods: the work used tabular and graphical methods of data representation, grouping, methods for calculating integral indicators, as well as the method of correlation and regression analysis.

Results: the article examines the concept of the "educational potential" and systematizes it’s defining indicators. The characteristics of the main target indicators characterizing educational activities and the material, technical and information base of education in the subjects of Russia are given. The authors present the integral indicators characterizing educational activities and the material, technical and information base of education. On the basis of the integral indicator characterizing educational activity and determining the indicator of educational performance – the share of the employed population aged 15 years and older with higher education in the total number of employed population, the regression model is constructed. According to the results of the comparison of the integral indicators characterizing educational activities and the material, technical and information base of education in the regions of Russia, the leading and lagging subjects were identified. According to these indicators, the multidimensional grouping has been developed that characterizes the lag of subjects from the national average based on the values of the generalizing indicators.

Conclusions and Relevance: the compiled ratings of the subjects of the Russian Federation on the integral assessment of the educational potential of the population can become the basis for the development of differentiated measures aimed at stimulating the development of education, as well as for evaluating the effectiveness of the implementation of relevant regional programs. The study of the Index of Educational activity and the index of the material, technical and information base of education will allow us to identify problem regions according to certain characteristics of education, since they can affect certain elements of the field of education. This will enable the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation to respond more quickly to problems in this area in the regional context.

INNOVATION

576-592 190
Abstract

Purpose: is to identify the dynamics of mutual influences and risks in the corporate bond markets of Russia, China, and the United States under conditions of external environmental instability.

Methods: the methods of comparative and econometric analysis of daily data from 2016 to 2024 were used, including the average yields of short- and medium-term corporate and the government bonds of the Russian Federation, China and the United States, selling prices of gold, oil, exchange rates, refinancing rates. GARCH models for forecasting the volatility of the index of corporate bonds of the Russian Federation and China under the influence of internal and external factors, multidimensional quantile regression for industries of the Russian Federation are calculated.

Results: six stages of changes in the dynamics of the corporate bond debt market under the influence of the market itself and external factors were highlighted. Periodization made it possible to study the impact of short-term and long-term effects of shocks on the debt market. For the Russian Federation, the volatility weight of the previous period is more than twice the weight of the long-term average volatility. For China, this ratio is even higher. The debt market of the Russian Federation is influenced by the debt markets of China and the United States, but the opposite has not been proven. Three groups of branches of the Russian economy have been formed according to the generality of reaction to external influences.

Conclusions and Relevance: during crisis periods, the weight of long-term average market volatility and local factors increases, while that of external factors decreases. Understanding the interactions of internal and external factors allows investors to anticipate market fluctuations, adapt and protect capital. For the Government, this provides an opportunity to develop scientifically sound risk forecasts and use new financial instruments such as yuan bonds.

593-606 163
Abstract

Purpose: is to develop the methodology for calculating the number of teaching staff based on the integration of the university's educational and economic plans.

Methods: the methods of modeling, analysis, generalization, synthesis, grouping, and the method of abstracting an integrated approach are used as the main ones in the article. In addition, following methods were used: scientific sources review, document analysis and observation method based on the university materials, in whose activities the methodology for calculating the number of teaching staff has been implemented through economically justified standards.

Results: the focus of the presented research was aimed at increasing the efficiency of financial support for the salaries of teaching staff. Expenses on the teaching staff occupy the largest share in the cost structure and have a significant impact on the financial condition of the university. Therefore, the methodology is proposed for calculating the number of teaching staff based on the integration of the university’s educational and economic plans. The standard for financial support of the state assignment of universities is considered and the author’s algorithm for calculating the number of teaching staff, based on the integration of educational and economic plans of the university, is developed. During the study, 5 main stages of calculating the number of teaching staff were identified, in accordance with which the calculation of the staffing level was carried out using the example of an agricultural university. It has been established that the planned number of teaching staff is lower than the planned staffing level, calculated based on the volume of contact work hours, which makes it possible to encourage universities to restructure their curricula without going beyond funding limits.

Conclusons and Relevance:the proposed approach allowed to conduct the calculation of teaching staff in accordance with the curriculum with a standardized volume of financial resources allocated to finance the remuneration of teaching staff of a specific educational program. The author's method for calculating the number of teaching staff, based on the integration of the university's economic and educational plans, could become the tool for increasing economic efficiency.

607-624 174
Abstract

Purpose: is to develop the mathematical model for quantitative assessment of the tax burden by building the tax trajectory of a commercial organization as the tool for optimizing tax payments.

Methods: the presented concept is developed on the basis of mathematical modeling of related economic processes concerning the formation of the tax base of the large economic entity. The model is based on a differential equation that determines the dynamics of fixed assets in relation to the selected optimal tax trajectory of the company.

Results: the authors propose an approach to the calculation of tax payments based on the construction of the optimal tax trajectory of an economic entity. The analysis of the impact of building the optimal tax trajectory on the efficiency of the organization’s activity was carried out. In this context, the number of principles for the construction of the optimal tax trajectory of the company are formed, allowing to take into account the interests of the taxpayers and the state in terms of the efficiency of resource allocation and stable budget replenishment. It’s revealed that in order to replenish the revenue part of the budget it’s possible to increase the tax burden of an economic entities, which doesn’t affect their financial position.

Conclusions and Relevance: the proposed approach expands the instrumental apparatus for calculating tax payments from the position of both taxpayers and fiscal authorities. The construction of the optimal tax trajectory contributes to the adoption of targeted decisions regarding the increase or decrease of the tax burden of an economic entity in mutual accounting with the factors of the macroeconomic situation. This approach allows both to manage the revenue part of the budget and subsequently redistribute it to solve social problems or overcome the decline in business economic activity. At the micro level, this contributes to the synchronization of the organization’s taxation system and the financial results of its activities. The practical significance of this approach lies in the prospect of further development and scaling of the mechanism of building an optimal tax trajectory for a wider range of companies, including through various instruments of state financial support.

625-639 145
Abstract

Purpose: is to develop the methodological approach to identifying the industry quasi-markets.

Methods: based on the analysis of the concept and definition of the essential features of the quasi-market, the main methods of identification of this type of the market structure were systematized, and the author's methodological approach was substantiated, including the estimation of the cross-ownership coefficient in the horizontal, vertical and compilation projection and the coefficient of relative object demand. For the empirical analysis we used data from the Spark Interfax database in accordance with the OKVED classifier.

Results: it is shown that quasi-market structures are found not only in the markets with state participation, but also in the industrial markets that do not provide the state order, which is due to cross-ownership rights and the formation of affiliated companies of vertical and horizontal industry integration. Within the framework of empirical analysis, the methodological approach to identify quasi-market has been tested on the example of the markets of machine-building products.

Conclusions and Relevance: approaches to the assessment of quasi-market structures are systematized and the methodological toolkit for its evaluation are proposed. The theoretical significance of the obtained results lies in the development of the concept of the sectoral markets in terms of the development of theoretical and methodological basis for the typology and assessment of market structures of modern economy and interdisciplinary approach to the study of transformation of sectoral markets, which will make it possible to analysis, identify and model the development of the sectoral markets and market structures at the macro- and meso-level. The practical significance of the results consists in the development of the methodological approach based on the assessment of cross-ownership factors, the prevailing forms of integration, the size of object demand, which will make it possible to assess the presence of the quasi-market, develop strategies for industrial development and increase the effectiveness of adaptive measures of the government regulation.

RESEARCH

640-658 226
Abstract

Purpose: is to substantiate the need for a balanced achievement of the Russia's national development goals at the federal, regional and municipal levels as a factor in ensuring national security based on the practice of implementing the sustainable development goals of China and India.

Methods: to achieve the set goal, methods of forming matrices for the adjusting goals, comparative institutional analysis of documents at the national, regional and municipal levels were used as tools for identifying potential risks associated with the imbalance of the system of the goals for ensuring national security at all levels of governance.

Results: a comparative analysis and systematization of regulatory legal documents of the national, regional and municipal levels was carried out on the basis of the transformation in them of approaches to the formulation (according to the following types: social, environmental, production-technological and institutional) of the national development goals of the Russian Federation to ensure national security and balanced development of the Russian Federation. The specifics of how the sustainable development goals are reflected in the national strategic documents of China and India and their possible use in implementing Russia’s national priorities are revealed.

Conclusions and Relevance: the approach proposed in the work using the method of forming matrices for the adjusting goals and comparative analysis of documents at the federal, regional and municipal levels involves the conceptual «stitching» of regulatory legal documents for the decomposition of the national goals to the level of regions and municipalities. Taking into account specific socio-economic and political conditions influencing the need to solve new problems in the field of sustainable development is aimed at the rational use of all types of national, regional and municipal resources. International experience, demonstrated by the example of China and India, emphasizes the importance of adapting international sustainable development goals to the national characteristics and priorities of Russia in the context of BRICS development, which reinforces the need for a balanced implementation of goals at all levels.

659-676 129
Abstract

Purpose: is to identify the features of transaction cost management in the activities of the Russian scientific journal editorials.

Methods: the study is based on the use of universal general scientific research methods, elements of strategic, economic, organizational, management analysis and a systemic approach to the organization of management processes. Transaction costs are estimated based on the ordinal approach, and the most common classification of them is used for the analysis.

Results: the article considers and characterizes the categories of transaction costs that affect the functioning of the editorial. For each the editorial, the quality, factors of occurrence and structure of these costs will be individual, which depends on the target settings for the development of the scientific journal. From the point of view of management, the external and internal directions of interactions are analyzed. It is emphasized that the purpose of management is precisely to optimization the costs for the implementation of transactions. In this sense, the existing possibilities are shown and the main limitations of management are determined. The practical operation of transaction cost management mechanisms is illustrated by the example of the editorial office of the scientific journal "MIR (Modernization. Innovation. Research)".

Conclusions and Relevance: the scientific journal editorial is an infrastructural unit of the scientific field. In its activities, it carries out a large volume of interactions of various directions, therefore, it is under the pressure of transaction costs, which can be mitigated by means of management influence. Management capabilities are largely determined by the internal potential of the editorial office (knowledge, management, innovation, finance), as well as support from industry market organizations. The main limitations are the property of "infinite interchangeability" of transaction costs (when the elimination of some inevitably generates others) and the complexity of their identification and assessment with a lack of a methodological base and practical tools. The measures applied in practice are often situational in nature, which can reduce their effectiveness. Therefore, the systematic approach to optimizing transaction costs within the overall management of the organization is recommended for the editorial.

677-696 186
Abstract

Purpose: is to reveal the potential for strengthening trade and economic cooperation between the Samara region and the Brazilian States by identifying the regional needs of the latter in non-energy goods.

Methods:the article applies the statistical method of structural and dynamic analysis, calculates the index of complementarity, and adapts the Balassa index and the export potential.

Results: the essence of the potential of trade and economic cooperation is revealed and the connection between the coupling of commodity flows with the non-energy potential of the region is shown. The authors identified the most active the Brazilian States and import-intensive groups of goods in trade with the Russian Federation. The Brazilian States with high potential for expanding supplies of non-energy products that can become centers of attraction in foreign trade for Russian regions were identified. Estimated values of export potential volumes, which expand the possibilities of trade and economic cooperation between the Samara region and the Brazilian States, are presented, and the conditions of export supplies are determined.

Сonclusions and Relevance: the scale of coupling of commodity flows with trade partners is the basis for the formation and realization of export potential of countries and their regions. Despite the sanctions, Russian-Brazilian cooperation has reached the level of strategic partnership, almost all the Brazilian States import Russian products, many of them increase imports. It has been established that the main channels of supply of Russian products to the Brazilian market are concentrated in the port Brazil States, traditionally the most open for trade cooperation with the countries of the world. Despite the fact that the processes of product diversification in mutual trade are developing slowly, the strategic partnership allows building long-term plans for further trade cooperation by expanding trade of the Samara region with the Brazilian States with a high share of dependence on imports of non-energy goods, which the Russian region specializes in producing. The complementarity index confirmed the complementarity of commodity flows between the Samara Region and a number of the Brazilian States. In the conditions of reorientation of export flows, the opportunities of the Samara region lie in the expansion of trade in food products, chemical industry, electrical and mechanical engineering products.

697-708 170
Abstract

Purpose: of the presented article is to formulate the main stages of solving the key tasks of managing the structural transformation of production and economic systems based on the specifics of modern conditions and trends in their changes.

Methods: within the framework of this study, the set of methods was used: factual, causal, structural analysis, generalization, comparison, logical method.

Results: based on the analysis of the specifics of modern environmental conditions, changes in the subjects of industrial and economic activity and the system of their interactions, three key tasks of managing their structural transformation were formulated. The proposed stages of the implementation of the structural transformation management process at the present stage, priority for each of these management tasks, are described. The implementation of the identified tasks in the conditions of the described specifics is proposed to be carried out on the basis of the mechanism of innovative public-private partnership.

Conclusions and Relevance: analysis of the specifics of modern industrial and economic entities, their communication systems and relationships, as well as trends in their changes has shown an increased need for targeted coordinated innovative development of domestic industrial production due to the sanctions restrictions. At the same time, the impossibility of expediting these structural transformations is justified without mobilizing the efforts of all participants in the regional production and economic system. The coordinating and guiding role of government agencies as active participants in these changes is highlighted. To ensure the implementation of innovation processes localized within the country, it is proposed to rely on the mechanism of innovative public-private partnership. Relying on the results of the intellectual activity of such a mechanism will contribute to the alignment of the system participants. This requires a transition from the one-time operational practice of creating innovative solutions to the organization of their creation, implementation and diffusion as a single cyclical flow.



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ISSN 2079-4665 (Print)
ISSN 2411-796X (Online)