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MIR (Modernization. Innovation. Research)

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Vol 15, No 3 (2024)
View or download the full issue PDF (Russian)
https://doi.org/10.18184/2079-4665.2024.15.3

MODERNIZATION

356-370 284
Abstract

Purpose: is to research of ways to reduce the energy supply costs for Russian consumers.

Methods: the analysis of the transformation of the electric power industry was carried out using the tools of tectology and system economic theory.

Results: the key reason for the constant increase in the cost of energy supply has been identified, which is the transition from a systematic approach to energy development aimed at increasing general economic efficiency to maximizing the economic performance of independent energy companies. The need to adjust the basic principles laid down in the concept of electric power industry development is substantiated.

Conclusions and Relevance: the result of the successful completion of the reform of the Russian electric power industry is a steady influx of significant investments into the industry over the course of decades. But despite the increase in power system capacity, which is outstripping the dynamics of electricity demand, the need for the most expensive peak power sources and energy storage systems is growing, which leads to an increase in electricity prices in addition to the investment component. A positive feedback has been identified that reduces the structural stability of the energy sector, namely: between rising electricity prices; reduction of electricity consumption from the network as a result of the installation of their own generation by some consumers; increasing costs of generating and network companies; more intensive growth in electricity prices and increased motivation to install their own generation for that part of consumers who continue to use grid electricity. The ways are proposed and the solutions are considered aimed at forming new connections between participants in the single technological process of production, transmission and consumption of energy resources, with the aim of reducing the energy supply costs and improving the specific performance indicators of the energy system, and in the future reducing the costs of integrating renewable energy sources into it.

371-387 229
Abstract

Purpose: of this article is to justify the implementation of insurance of environmental risks in the Russian Federation in the form of a pilot project based on imputed insurance with the definition of the main conditions of insurance coverage.

Methods: the presented work uses statistical and predictive methods and the integrated approach for processing data on natural, climatic and human activity risks. Correlation-regression analysis and actuarial modeling were used to determine the conditions for insuring environmental risks and calculate tariff rates.

Results: the paper substantiates the possibility of carrying out insurance of environmental risks in the form of a pilot project using an imputed form of insurance. Approaches to the calculation of the main parameters of business civil liability insurance for causing environmental damage as a result of an accident within the framework of a pilot project are proposed, including the determination of the minimum and maximum non-aggregate insurance limit, the minimum number of insurance companies, and the calculation of tariff rates. Due to the lack of Russian statistics on insurance coverage of environmental risks, statistical data on global insurance catastrophic losses from natural events, climate risks and human actions, as well as judicial statistics on disputes over the application of environmental protection legislation, were used for the calculation. The regions of the Russian Federation were identified for the implementation of a pilot project of environmental risk insurance.

Conclusions and Relevance: the implementation of a pilot project of environmental risk insurance in certain regions on the basis of imputed insurance will make it possible to assess the current and forecast level of environmental risks in the Russian Federation, the need for insurance and reinsurance protection, the possibility and necessity of state participation in covering environmental damage. Using insurance statistics, insurers will be able to develop adjustment factors that encourage enterprises to take preventive measures. Reflection in a special reporting section of the results of the participation of insurance companies in the insurance of environmental pollution risks will be considered as the implementation of ESG principles.

388–403 376
Abstract

Purpose: is to determine the impact of working week length on satisfaction with work-children balance in a gender context.

Methods: the empirical data are based on a structured survey of employed Russians raising children under 14 (N = 1449), the final sample size of 826 respondents. The authors’ online survey technology was used. The success of work-children balance was rated on a 10-point scale. Mean satisfaction with work-children balance as a function of parents' working hours was analysed using Mann-Whitney U-test and z-test.

Results: sociological assessments show high overemployment among parents of minor children: 56.5% of working fathers and 33.1% of working mothers work over 40 hours a week. The statistical significance of the average estimates of the differentiation of "time for children" satisfaction between overemployed, underemployed and standardly employed parents by working hours revealed gender specificity. Working fathers show no significant difference in the estimated proportions, although overemployed male respondents are 1.6 times less likely to rate the success of their work-children balance as high. Among women, there is a direct correlation: the longer the working week, the lower the average assessment of the success of work-children balance. Women with two or more children of different ages (0–6; 7–14) are the least satisfied with their work-children balance.

Conclusions and Relevance: working hours exceeding the normative standards of the RF Labour Code negatively impact women's parental well-being and impede the multi-child parenting as a national demographic goal. It is important to develop mechanisms to encourage employers to reduce overtime for women raising children under 14.

INNOVATION

404-420 250
Abstract

Purpose: of the article is to present the experience in developing and testing the methodology for extracting a system of narratives on a socially significant phenomenon from authentic social network big data (using the example of narratives about COVID-19 vaccination in the Russian social network VKontakte during the pandemic).

Methods: of automated data analysis were used by the tools of the PolyAnalyst analytical platform: topic modeling (PLSA method), text indexing algorithms with the sentence identification stage, clustering, data aggregation, data normalization, calculation of a quantitative index. The calculation of the measure of proximity of keywords using the Python, partial manual markup and data validation were also carried out.

Results: 4.5 million messages relevant to the topic of COVID-19 vaccination published in VKontakte from 01.01.2020 to 01.03.2023 were reduced to 237 stable narratives. A popularity index was calculated for each narrative. For example, the following narrative turned out to be the most popular: “Employers put pressure on people to get vaccinated” (it was supported by 76,118 texts). As a result of the study, a dataset was obtained, including 237 narratives.

Conclusions and Relevance: the developed toolkit is universal: the methodology can be adapted to any relevant topic, requiring only adjustments to the input parameters of thematic modeling. The obtained dataset is planned to be introduced into scientific circulation as an up-to-date material for studying public opinion on vaccination in Russia. The results contribute to international research on public opinion and communication in crises and can serve as a basis for practical actions aimed at improving the quality of public communications and decision-making at all levels of government.

421-438 487
Abstract

Purpose: is to develop an innovative approach to risk management in public-private partnership (PPP) projects using advanced artificial intelligence technologies that allow creating the risk assessment model that takes into account non-linear relationships between various risk factors.

Methods: in addition to traditional methods of scientific knowledge, interdisciplinary approaches of risk management and established practice of machine learning were used in the work. The methodological basis of the study was formed by works on the risk assessment and the application of AI algorithms in this area. The empirical basis of the study was the data of the official portal of ROSINFRA on public-private partnership projects.

Results: the practice of applying AI algorithms to the task of assessing the risks of PPP-projects in Russia and abroad was studied. It is established that the most effective result is shown by the models based on Random-Forest-Classifier. However, the presented solutions do not take into account Russian economic realities. The authors have structured a database of implemented PPP-projects suitable for risk modeling. The model for assessing the risk of failure to achieve the objectives of Russian PPP-projects has been developed and its quality has been assessed. Recommendations on implementation of the model in the operational loop of PPP projects realization processes are offered.

Conclusions and Relevance: the developed model allows, according to the general parameters of PPP project (region, authority, term of agreement, industry and scope of implementation, etc.) with the accuracy of 93% (according to the ROC\AUC metric), to assess the risk that the project will end incorrectly (due to a failed tender, refusal to launch, termination by court decision, cancellation/annulment of the tender). With the help of the model the executive authorities of the Russian Federation can build risk management for PPP projects management in the regions and thus contribute to their efficiency improvement. The article may also become useful for project management practitioners and appraisers.

439-453 248
Abstract

Purpose: is to develop the menu of contracts for the model of tariff regulation of natural monopolies in the areas of heat supply, water supply and sanitation, to ensure the economic security of subjects of the tariff regulation system.

Methods: the article uses a systematic approach. The theoretical basis of the study is the synthesis of the theory of tariff regulation, the theory of contracts and the theory of economic security. The work also applies special methods used in calculating tariffs: economically justified costs (expenses) and tariff indexation.

Results: the presented study substantiates the model of tariff (antimonopoly) regulation of subjects of natural monopolies, taking into account their economic security. Using the provisions of the contract theory, a new menu of contracts for consumers has been developed and tested, allowing them to be included in the process of influencing the size of tariffs, stimulating demand, taking into account low-level indicators in tariff regulation and solving the problem of fulfilling the production programs of monopolists.

Conclusions and Relevance: existing practical and theoretical models of tariff regulation do not ensure the economic security of natural monopolies and consumers. In this regard, a substantiation of the model of tariff (antimonopoly) regulation of subjects of natural monopolies and the development of a new menu of contracts for consumers, providing for their choice of one of two types of contracts, were made. The main conclusions of the study can be used to improve the state tariff policy.

RESEARCH

454-470 227
Abstract

Purpose: the study aims to analyze industrial development in the Udmurtia and propose measures to foster innovation. These efforts may enhance regional manufacturers' order portfolio and enhance the region's competitiveness both nationally and internationally.

Methods: the research employs a complex of methods including factual, dynamic, causal, correlation-regression and structural analysis, alongside generalization, comparison, logical analysis, and graphical visualization.

Results: the article analyzes the development of the industry in the Udmurtia, known for its strong presence in the military-industrial complex (MIC). The study delves into current industry trends, innovation indicators, and practices of MIC enterprises. It highlights obstacles to innovation and suggests measures to boost innovation, increase output volumes, and bolster the industry's adaptability to emerging challenges.

Conclusions and Relevance: the regional enterprises of the manufacturing industry and MIC are the leading producers of innovation in the region. However, the proportion of innovative industrial products in the overall regional output is limited to 10%. Correlation and regression analysis showed the significance of the level of innovative activity of organizations and the share of organizations carrying out technological innovations in the effectiveness of innovative activity in the manufacturing industry. Innovation can be encouraged through various means, such as attracting investments, establishing a regional Agency for Innovation Development, digital platformization, and fostering integration among innovation entities with the help of an innovation accelerator, taking advantage of new market niche opportunities, stimulated by promoting corporate entrepreneurship. The region’s future prospects are closely tied to the development of the high-tech sector of unmanned aerial systems, what is the subject of scientific interest of the author's future research.

471-484 187
Abstract

Purpose: is to work out the scientifically sound theoretical and methodical framework for the «smart» complementarity of trade flows, aimed at selecting and substantiating potential commodity niches in trade of Russian regions with foreign countries.

Methods: the general methodological basis of the study is the critical analysis of the scientific literature that forms the theoretical and methodological basis for the global competitiveness of individual regions of a country presented in the theories of regional and spatial economy. The study has been carried out by methods of system, structural-logical and abstract-logical analysis.

Results: the research resulted in some fundamental scientific novelties such as: the scientifically grounded theoretical concept of “smart” complementarity, which makes it possible to identify the presence of specific foreign trade niches in a geographical (country, region) and commodity contexts, based on an analysis of the complementarity of trade flows at the level of a Russian region and a foreign country, and assessment of the global competitiveness of the regional economy, as well as “fine” criteria that determine the activity of participants in foreign economic activity. The applied results included a specific configuration of "smart" complementarity – the algorithm for determining promising economic specializations of the region, allowing to combine trade statistics of  a foreign country with data regional statistics, indicating the presence of foreign trade potential, taking into account regional economic specializations. The developed algorithm is intended for the use in an information and analytical system to support management decisions in the field of foreign economic activity of the region.

Conclusions and Relevance: the concept and configuration of «smart» complementarity in their practical implementation in the form of an information and analytical system are proposed in the article to provide the participants of foreign economic activity with data on promising export groups for selected countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America. This approach allows moving the «center of gravity» of building trade and economic relations with foreign countries from the federal to the regional level. 

485-498 195
Abstract

Purpose: is to develop recommendations for the construction of new indices of innovative development designed for cross-country comparisons.

Methods: the conventional general scientific methods were used in the article, such as the ones of description, comparison, system analysis and historical comparison. The study was based on the documents describing calculation methods of the economic indices and scientific publications covering the history, specifics and problems of the practical application of those indices.

Results: it is shown that since the 1930s, when the creation of economic indices drew attention of economic science, indices have evolved from the relatively simple statistical indicators to the complex tools with sophisticated calculation methods. Using several of the most famous or remarkable indices as an example, the principal methods currently used in assessing the level of innovative development are revealed. Basing on the conducted research, the major requirements for composing innovative development indices are stipulated.

Conclusions and Relevance: it has been found out that in order to achieve the maximum objectivity in compiling indices of innovative development, the widest possible range of significant indicators should be used and a pool of experts should be engaged in their selection. It is also advisable to engage the pool in compiling the index formula, in particular the indicators weights. Data normalization should be used to ensure comparability of incommensurable indicators, and statistical outliers are advised to be neutralized through standardization techniques. It is also necessary to take into account the goals of the index compiled. At the same time, in the future it is necessary to take into account relationships between the actors of national innovation systems and between different innovation systems, effects of scale and, when possible, sectoral specialization of countries and other national specifics.

499-511 174
Abstract

Purpose: is to reveal features of contemporary State’s upskilling policies of India that are focused on improving the competitiveness of Indian labour.

Methods: the article uses the methods of multiple comparative analysis, generalization, comparison and SWOT analysis of upskilling policies adopted by the government to upgrade the skills of the future workforce of India.

Results: the article examines the major government policies on skill development in India, provides a comparative analysis of their role, importance and effectiveness, and conducts a SWOT analysis to better understand these policies. It summarizes the properties, features and functions of the contemporary Government policies on skill development to highlight the relevance and importance of developing new tools to enhance their effectiveness. The comparative analysis of various factors has shown that the current Government policies on skill development in India require a holistic and realistic approach to revise the objectives of the Government strategy in this area and set reasonable targets.

Conclusions and Relevance: contemporary State upskilling policies such as Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana, skill India etc. didn’t reach set target. Not so many young labor force is enrolling in the courses provided by the State due to lack of promotion activities and reach to the target audience. The Government has less statistics of the Indian labor market which could clearly define the on-time status of all the State initiatives. There is a need to develop an online platform of staffing to have clear and actual data of the labor market. The online platform of staffing can connect all the stakeholders of the labor market which would help the government to use the holistic approach for developing the Indian labor market together with the stakeholder of the market.



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ISSN 2079-4665 (Print)
ISSN 2411-796X (Online)