Migration flows of municipalities of the Ural Federal District: Factors of formation

Purpose: to assess the factors shaping migration flows in municipalities of the Ural Federal District, Russia, in the context of territorial social transformation. Methods: the empirical panel is based on Rosstat municipal statistics for 2012–2024 and includes 198 municipalities of the Ural Federal District. The variables describe investment activity, employment, wages, social and utility infrastructure, transport connectivity and environmental conditions. A dynamic spatial autoregressive model is used to account persistence and intermunicipal dependence. To select the final specification, four spatial weight matrices were compared: linear distances, normalized linear distances, adjacent boundaries, and normalized adjacent boundaries.

Results: the model indicates persistence in migration growth and a positive spatial lag, meaning that local migration flows are linked to nearby and functionally connected municipalities. Fixed capital investment, average wages and the length of local public roads have positive coefficients. Negative estimates for average employee headcount and the number of places in preschool institutions are interpreted as evidence of municipal heterogeneity: high employment concentration in certain economic sectors and spare capacity in the social infrastructure are not capable of generating population inflow unless accompanied by quality jobs, adequate incomes, transport connectivity, and development prospects.

Conclusions and Relevance: migration flows reflect labour potential, infrastructure pressure and territorial attractiveness, and can therefore indicate municipal social transformation. The results support the hypothesis that migration flows in the Ural Federal District depend on local conditions, previous migration patterns, proximity, investment, wages and road connectivity. Practically that means that policy measures should target groups of connected municipalities rather than isolated territories.

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