Dynamic modeling of regional food security. part 1

Purpose: to develop a comprehensive set of dynamic models based on differential equations for quantitative forecasting of regional food security parameters trajectories, and on this basis, to formulate corrective managerial decisions within the framework of agrifood policy. The first part of the study is devoted to formalizing the interrelationships among the indicators of required food production volumes, consumption, and food quality characteristics.

Methods: the research methodology is based on constructing an economic model of regional food security as a set of differential equations used to assess the system's parameters and predict its functioning. The model was validated using data from Krasnoyarsk Krai.

Results: a set of dynamic models of regional food security is presented, incorporating production, consumption and technological factors. The models have been verified against statistical data from Krasnoyarsk Krai and provide quantitative forecasts of changes in security indicators with sufficient accuracy for managerial decision-making. Estimates of production volumes required to meet regional domestic consumption were obtained, along with forecasts of food quality dynamics. Recommendations for the management of the region's agrifood system are formulated.

Conclusions and Relevance: among the threats destabilizing the agrifood system of Krasnoyarsk Krai are the following: the widening gap between actual harvest yields and the required production volumes of vegetables needed to cover current consumption according to nutritional standards, which points to a projected inflection point in the trend toward aligning the dietary structure with rational norms amid rising prices. Similar conclusions were obtained for milk and meat production and consumption, for which the region exhibits a high dependency on imports. These trends are observed against the backdrop of a projected decline in food quality across a number of parameters, indicating a situation worse than the national average. To mitigate the identified risks, adjustments to regional programs are required to expand vegetable production, stimulate dairy and meat livestock farming, and implement a product traceability system.

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