Processes and prospects of EAEU economic integration

Abstract

Purpose: to identify opportunities and constraints for the development of trade among EAEU member states.

Methods: based on export and import data for an extended group of EAEU countries and affiliated partners, trade intensity indices, a modified Herfindahl–Hirschman index, integration potential indices were calculated, and structural trade networks were constructed. A multilateral analysis of EAEU trade prospects under potential enlargement scenarios was conducted.

Results: the study assesses the stability of intra-EAEU trade relations over the period 1995–2024, covering trade interactions among 13 countries with the most intensive ties. Key features of trade relations within the EAEU and with potential integration partners are identified. The results reveal uneven and asymmetric export–import structures within the EAEU. Russia and Kazakhstan remain oriented toward European markets, while Armenia, Belarus and Kyrgyzstan are more closely linked to Asian markets. Risks and integration potential associated with new participants are identified.

Conclusions and Relevance: trade dynamics indicate deepening integration within the EAEU, accompanied by both risks and opportunities. There is strong volatility of Kazakhstan's trade participation, the risk of dependence remains high for Belarus. Key challenges include Russia’s limited involvement in intra-union trade and the similarity of export structures between Russia and Kazakhstan. Expansion toward Iran, Uzbekistan, India and Egypt could mitigate these constraints and enhance integration resilience. The conclusions made it possible to formulate recommendations for forming the EAEU development strategy.