Factors affecting the fair value of PJsc Norilsk Nickel shares
https://doi.org/10.18184/2079-4665.2026.17.1.173-188
Abstract
Purpose: to identify the degree of macroeconomic, industry, and internal factors influence on the fair value of PJSC Norilsk Nickel shares in the context of macroeconomic and geopolitical instability.
Methods: сorrelation and regression analysis were the primary methods used to identify statistically significant relationships between fair value and various corporate, industry, and macroeconomic indicators. The analysis was conducted using R programming language, with statistical packages and visualization tools. Stationarity of time series was confirmed using ADF testing; non-stationary components were differenced. Multiple linear regression was used to build the model, followed by residual diagnostics.
Results: correlation analysis indicated that global nickel prices and the IMOEX index are key positive drivers of the fair value for Norilsk Nickel shares. Notable inter-variable relationships were observed: global nickel and copper prices are correlated; the IMOEX index and USD/RUB exchange rate show a positive connection; RVI (Russian Volatility Index) and OFZ yields relate, reflecting growing uncertainty and interest rates. ROA and ROE are logically linked, while the debt burden shows a weak negative correlation with ROE. The final model demonstrates high statistical significance, stability, and absence of multicollinearity and heteroscedasticity. It explains the majority of fair value variation during 2015–2024.
Conclusions and Relevance: the study confirms the significance of both industry-specific and general market factors in determining the fair share value for metallurgical companies. The resulting model holds forecasting potential and aids decision-making amid uncertainty. The findings can help investors assess the investment attractiveness of PJSC MMK Norilsk Nickel and assist corporate governance in strengthening resilience to external shocks.
About the Authors
A. A. Terentev
Kazan (Volga Region) Federal University
Russian Federation
Competing Interests:
Russian Federation
Anton A. Terentev, Master's student at the Institute of Management, Economics and Finance
Kazan
Competing Interests:
The authors declare that there is no Conflict of Interest.
E. Yu. Vetoshkina
Kazan (Volga Region) Federal University
Russian Federation
Competing Interests:
Russian Federation
Elena Yu. Vetoshkina, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Department of Accounting, Analysis and Audit, Institute of Management, Economics and Finance
Kazan
Competing Interests:
The authors declare that there is no Conflict of Interest.
A. K. Dashin
Kazan (Volga Region) Federal University
Russian Federation
Competing Interests:
Russian Federation
Andrey K. Dashin, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Department of Accounting, Analysis and Audit, Institute of Management, Economics and Finance
Kazan
Competing Interests:
The authors declare that there is no Conflict of Interest.
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Review
For citations:
Terentev A.A., Vetoshkina E.Yu., Dashin A.K. Factors affecting the fair value of PJsc Norilsk Nickel shares. MIR (Modernization. Innovation. Research). 2026;17(1):173-188. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.18184/2079-4665.2026.17.1.173-188
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