mirМИР (Модернизация. Инновации. Развитие)MIR (Modernization. Innovation. Research)2079-46652411-796XSchool of Public Administration10.18184/2079-4665.2026.17.1.173-188mir-2138Research ArticleРАЗВИТИЕRESEARCHФакторы формирования справедливой стоимости акций ПАО «Норильский Никель»Factors affecting the fair value of PJsc Norilsk Nickel shareshttps://orcid.org/0009-0006-3245-8157ТерентьевА. А.TerentevA. A.

Терентьев Антон Александрович, магистрант Института управления, экономики и финансов

Казань 

Anton A. Terentev, Master's student at the Institute of Management, Economics and Finance 

Kazan 

aaterentev05@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3240-8150ВетошкинаЕ. Ю.VetoshkinaE. Yu.

Ветошкина Елена Юрьевна, кандидат экономических наук, доцент кафедры учета, анализа и аудита Института управления, экономики и финансов

Казань 

Elena Yu. Vetoshkina, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Department of Accounting, Analysis and Audit, Institute of Management, Economics and Finance

Kazan 

pulya_1978@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-1586-4939ДашинА. К.DashinA. K.

Дашин Андрей Константинович, кандидат экономических наук, доцент кафедры учета, анализа и аудита Института управления, экономики и финансов

Казань 

Andrey K. Dashin, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Department of Accounting, Analysis and Audit, Institute of Management, Economics and Finance

Kazan 

dashin-ak@mail.ruКазанский (Приволжский) федеральный университетРоссияKazan (Volga Region) Federal UniversityRussian Federation202611032026171173188Copyright © Терентьев А.А., Ветошкина Е.Ю., Дашин А.К., 20262026Терентьев А.А., Ветошкина Е.Ю., Дашин А.К.Terentev A.A., Vetoshkina E.Y., Dashin A.K.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.mir-nayka.com/jour/article/view/2138

Целью исследования является выявление степени влияния макроэкономических, отраслевых и внутренних факторов на справедливую стоимость акций ПАО «ГМК Норильский никель» в условиях макроэкономической и геополитической нестабильности.

Методы

Методы. Основным инструментарием выступает корреляционно-регрессионный анализ, позволяющий выявить статистически значимые взаимосвязи между справедливой стоимостью акций и совокупностью корпоративных, отраслевых и макроэкономических переменных. Анализ проводился с использованием языка программирования R, обладающего широким набором статистических пакетов и средств визуализации. Предварительно проведена проверка стационарности временных рядов с применением ADF-теста, устранена нестационарность путем дифференцирования. Для построения модели использована множественная линейная регрессия с последующей диагностикой остатков.

Результаты работы

Результаты работы. Корреляционный анализ показал, что мировые цены на никель и индекс IMOEX являются ключевыми положительными факторами, влияющими на справедливую стоимость акций ПАО «ГМК Норильский никель». Между переменными также выявлены значимые связи: мировые цены на никель и медь коррелируют между собой; индекс IMOEX и курс USD/RUB положительно связаны; связь RVI (Russian Volatility Index) и доходности ОФЗ указывает на рост неопределенности и ставок; ROA и ROE логично коррелируют; долговая нагрузка слабо отрицательно связана с ROE. Построенная модель продемонстрировала высокую статистическую значимость и устойчивость, отсутствие мультиколлинеарности и гетероскедастичности. Она объясняет основную долю вариации справедливой стоимости акций за период 2015–2024 гг.

Выводы

Выводы. Проведенное исследование подтверждает статистическую значимость отраслевых и общерыночных факторов в формировании справедливой стоимости акций металлургических компаний. Разработанная модель на основе результатов корреляционного анализа обладает прикладным потенциалом для прогнозирования и поддержки принятия решений в условиях высокой неопределенности. Полученные результаты могут быть использованы инвесторами при оценке инвестиционной привлекательности ПАО «ГМК Норильский никель», а также в корпоративном управлении для повышения устойчивости к внешним шокам.

Purpose

Purpose: to identify the degree of macroeconomic, industry, and internal factors influence on the fair value of PJSC Norilsk Nickel shares in the context of macroeconomic and geopolitical instability.

Methods

Methods: сorrelation and regression analysis were the primary methods used to identify statistically significant relationships between fair value and various corporate, industry, and macroeconomic indicators. The analysis was conducted using R programming language, with statistical packages and visualization tools. Stationarity of time series was confirmed using ADF testing; non-stationary components were differenced. Multiple linear regression was used to build the model, followed by residual diagnostics.

Results

Results: correlation analysis indicated that global nickel prices and the IMOEX index are key positive drivers of the fair value for Norilsk Nickel shares. Notable inter-variable relationships were observed: global nickel and copper prices are correlated; the IMOEX index and USD/RUB exchange rate show a positive connection; RVI (Russian Volatility Index) and OFZ yields relate, reflecting growing uncertainty and interest rates. ROA and ROE are logically linked, while the debt burden shows a weak negative correlation with ROE. The final model demonstrates high statistical significance, stability, and absence of multicollinearity and heteroscedasticity. It explains the majority of fair value variation during 2015–2024.

Conclusions and Relevance: the study confirms the significance of both industry-specific and general market factors in determining the fair share value for metallurgical companies. The resulting model holds forecasting potential and aids decision-making amid uncertainty. The findings can help investors assess the investment attractiveness of PJSC MMK Norilsk Nickel and assist corporate governance in strengthening resilience to external shocks.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.