Factors of forming inflation expectations in Russia
https://doi.org/10.18184/2079-4665.2026.17.1.143-156
Abstract
Purpose: to examine the dependence of households' inflation expectations on the values of observed and actual inflation, as well as the key rate of the Central Bank of Russia and its inertia.
Methods: the main tool in the article is econometric analysis. The least squares method is used to test the level of dependence of inflation expectations on indicators of actual inflation, observed inflation, and the key rate of the Central Bank of Russia for the period 2014-2025. The source for the simulation is statistical data from the Central Bank of Russia. The assessment of the inertia of inflation expectations, i.e. their dependence on previous values, was carried out using an autoregressive model with lags.
Results: the results obtained indicate that Russian inflation expectations are close to irrational ones. The indicators of observed and actual inflation have a significant impact on their formation. The current key rate has a weak impact. The lagged autoregressive model shows a high dependence of Russian inflation expectations on previous values, indicating the adaptive nature of these expectations. However, the farther back in time the previous results are, the less impact they have on the respondents' current assessment.
Conclusions and Relevance: the average and median values of Russian inflation expectations are about twice as high as the corresponding official inflation indicators, and there is a moderate positive correlation between these two variables. The dependence of inflation expectations on the key interest rate remains weak, which indicates the irrational nature of Russian households' inflation expectations. Due to this weak relationship, tightening monetary policy through high interest rates does not have significant impact on household inflation expectations, so the effectiveness of the monetary policy interest rate channel should be compensated for by active communication from monetary and fiscal authorities.
About the Author
O. S. Gasanov
Don State Technical University
Russian Federation
Competing Interests:
Russian Federation
Oscar S. Gasanov, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor; Associate Professor of the Department of Accounting, Analysis and Audit
Researcher ID: ACQ-5728-2022; Scopus ID: 57214103586
Rostov-on-Don
Competing Interests:
The author declares that there is no Conflict of Interest.
References
1. Gurov I.N. Inflation expectations managing and the long-term effects of monetary policy. Monograph. Saint Petersburg: Expert Solutions LLC, 2017. 124 p. EDN: https://elibrary.ru/wktgrm (In Russ.)
2. Ranneva N.A. Inflation expectations: an overview of modern approaches. Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2019; (2):54– 80. EDN: http://elibrary.ru/yvwahj. https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2019-2-54-80 (In Russ.)
3. Soybilgen B., Yazgan E. An evaluation of inflation expectations in Turkey. Central Bank Review. 2017; 17(1):31–38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2017.01.001 (In Eng.)
4. Lin X., Li X. A study on anchoring Swedish inflation expectations in times of turbulence. Energy Economics. 2025; 144:108416. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108416 (In Eng.)
5. Andolfatto D., Hendry S., Moran K. Are inflation expectations rational? Journal of Monetary Economics. 2008; 55(2):406–422. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2007.07.004 (In Eng.)
6. Carroll C.D. Macroeconomic expectations of households and professional forecasters. The Quarterly Journal of Economy. 2003; 118(1):269–298. https://doi.org/10.1162/00335530360535207 (In Eng.)
7. Andreev A.V., Grishchenko V.O., Lymar M.S., Orlov D.A., Shubin I.A. Factors in the formation of inflation expectations as recorded in the Russian national survey of consumer finance. Economic Policy. 2024; 19(5):54– 83. EDN: http://elibrary.ru/wizhhj. https://doi.org/10.18288/1994-5124-2024-5-54-83 (In Russ.)
8. William A.B., George W.E. Intrinsic heterogeneity in expectation formation. Journal of Economic Theory. 2006; 127(1):264–295. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2004.11.005 (In Eng.)
9. Lolait A.S., Gurov I.N. The process of forming inflationary expectations of economic agents in an information economy. Russian Journal of Money and Finance. 2011; (1):57–66. EDN: https://elibrary.ru/ndboxf (In Russ.)
10. Pedersen M., Pérez K. Financial literacy and the impact of central bank communication on consumer inflation expectations. Borsa Istanbul Review. 2025; 25(S1):53–58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2025.09.002 (In Eng.)
11. Gerlach-Kristen P., Moessner R., Rosenblatt-Wisch R. Computing long-term market inflation expectations for countries without inflation expectation. Russian Journal of Money and Finance. 2018; 77(3):23–48. EDN: https://elibrary.ru/sdkzrp. https://doi.org/10.31477/rjmf.201803.23 (In Eng.)
12. Khazanov A. On quantification of inflation expectations by the Bank of Russia. Russian Journal of Money and Finance. 2015; (3):59–63. EDN: https://elibrary.ru/tmggin (In Russ.)
13. Binetti A., Nuzzi F., Stantcheva S. People’s understanding of inflation. Journal of Monetary Economics. 2024; 148(S):103652. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103652 (In Eng.)
14. Shiller R.J. Comments on Alberto Binetti, Francesco Nuzzi, and Stefanie Stantcheva “people's understanding of inflation”. Journal of Monetary Economics. 2024; 148(S):103674. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103674 (In Eng)
15. Drager L., Lamla M., Pfajfar D. Are survey expectations theory-consistent? The role of Central Bank communication and news. In: Finance and Economics Discussion Series. 2015. P. 1–46. https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2015.035 (In Eng.)
16. Comerford D.A. Cognitive reflection, arithmetic ability and financial literacy independently predict both inflation expectations and forecast accuracy. International Journal of Forecasting. 2025, 41(2):517–531. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2024.06.011 (In Eng.)
17. Ang A., Bekaert G., Wei M. Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better? Journal of Monetary Economics. 2007; 54(4):1163–1212. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2006.04.006 (In Eng.)
18. Penikas H. Pass-through of the bank of Russia key rate into deposit rates between 2020 and 2022. Russian Journal of Money and Finance. 2022; 81(2):20–48. EDN: https://elibrary.ru/glqgph (In Russ.)
19. Elizondo R., Carrillo J. Comparison of inflation expectations from surveys and markets across different horizons. Latin American Journal of Central Banking. 2025:100179. In Press. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.latcb.2025.100179 (In Eng.)
20. Kieren P., König-Kersting C., Schmidt R., Trautmann S., Heinicke F. First-order and higher-order inflation expectations: Evidence about households and firms. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization. 2025; 233:106988. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2025.106988 (In Eng.)
21. Jangarasheva N.V., Shaimerdenova A.A., Soltangazy D.E., Nurgalieva A.M., Chelekbai A.D. Inflation targeting of the national bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Statistics, accounting and audit. 2023; (1(88)):22– 29. EDN: http://elibrary.ru/xiarak. https://doi.org/10.51579/1563-2415.2023-1.03 (In Russ.)
22. Bonomo M., Carvalho C., Eusepi S., Perrupato M., Abib D., Ayres J., Matos S. Abrupt monetary policy change and unanchoring of inflation expectations. Journal of Monetary Economics. 2024; 145:103576. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103576 (In Eng.)
23. Kuznetsova O., Ulyanova S. The exchange rate and the verbal interventions by the government and the Bank of Russia. HSE Economic Journal. 2018; 22(2):228–250. EDN: http://elibrary.ru/uvnqxs. https://doi.org/10.17323/1813-8691-2018-22-2-228-250 (In Russ.)
24. Abdurakhmanov M.I. Assessing the predictability of the bank of Russia decisions on the key rate and informational advantage in its forecasting. Voprosy Economiki. 2024; (4):70–91. EDN: http://elibrary.ru/cqcehw. https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2024-4-70-91 (In Russ.)
25. Petrova D.A. How credible is the Central Bank of Russia to Russian households? Economic Policy. 2024; 19(4):34–59. EDN: http://elibrary.ru/zawfqw. https://doi.org/10.18288/1994-5124-2024-4-34-59 (In Russ.)
26. Zhemkov M.I., Kuznetsova O.S. Verbal interventions as a factor of inflation expectations in Russia. Journal of the New Economic Association. 2019; (2(42)):49–69. EDN: http://elibrary.ru/vqsodl. https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2019-42-2-3 (In Russ.)
27. Hayo B., Méon P.-G. Preaching to the agnostic: Inflation reporting can increase trust in the central bank but only among people with weak priors. Journal of International Money and Finance. 2024; 142:103037. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103037 (In Eng.)
28. Grishchenko V., Krylov I. New approaches to measuring, analysing, and forecasting prices: a review of the bank of Russia, NES, and HSE university workshop. Russian Journal of Money and Finance. 2024; 83(2):92–111. https://elibrary.ru/ebfosy (In Russ.)
29. Gobbi L., Mazzocchi R., Tamborini R. Inflation shocks and the New Keynesian model: When should central banks fear inflation expectations? The North American Journal of Economics and Finance. 2025; 80:102508. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2025.102508 (In Eng.)
Review
For citations:
Gasanov O.S. Factors of forming inflation expectations in Russia. MIR (Modernization. Innovation. Research). 2026;17(1):143-156. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.18184/2079-4665.2026.17.1.143-156
Views:
325
JATS XML
Email this article 