System Models of Risk Management in the Formation of Programs of Innovative Development of the Region
https://doi.org/10.18184/2079-4665.2019.10.4.487-500
Abstract
Purpose: the aim of the work is to study the risks of innovative development of regions and industries, develop systemic risk management models in the formation and implementation of innovative development programs in the region.
Methods: the work used general scientific methods and approaches to research, such as analysis, comparison, generalization, optimization methods. Methodological approaches of risk management models include concepts, approaches aimed at the problems of risk management in the formation and implementation of regional innovative development programs, studied in domestic and foreign literature; mathematical apparatus of dichotomous and network programming.
Results: the article provides a methodological justification and description of the criteria aspects of managing such tasks, risk analysis, develops a theory of project risks of a complex of innovative development programs for regions, presents models for assessing complex risk of a program, gives a statement of the problem of risk management and the formation of multi-purpose programs taking into account complex risks, as well as limitations for financing medium-risk and high-risk programs, algorithms for solving the risk management problem by dichotomous methods and networks are presented of programming. The transition from program-targeted management to integrated (joint system use of the project and scenario approaches) was completed, which allowed us to consider them holistically, form a complex of projects–programs, apply risk management mechanisms based on qualitative assessments and propose quantitative models for managing project and program risks of a program complex.
Conclusions and Relevance: the proposed approach can be used in the formation and implementation of many program-targeted documents of the state and regional level with the transition to project management, as a tool for analysis and accounting of risks.
About the Author
M. K. Uandykova
University “Narhoz”, Almaty
Kazakhstan
Competing Interests: The Author declares that there is no Conflict of Interest.
Kazakhstan
Mafura K. Uandykova, University “Narhoz”, Department “Technology and Ecology” (55, Dzhandosov str., Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan, 050035); Finance University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Department "System Analysis in Economics" (49, Leningradsky avenue, Moscow, 125993), Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Scopus Author ID: 57194090687
Competing Interests: The Author declares that there is no Conflict of Interest.
References
1. Kleiner G. B. State – Region – Field – Enterprise: Framework of Economics System Stability of Russia. Part 2. Economy of Region . 2015; (3):9–17. https://doi.org/10.17059/2015-3-1 (In Russ.)
2. Barkalov S.A., Burkov V.N., Kotenko A.M., Andronnikova N.G. Models and methods for optimizing regional development programs. Мoscow: Institute of Control Sciences of Russian Academy of Sciences, 2001. 60 p. Available from: http://www.konsalter.ru/biblioteka/m112/file_48.pdf [Accessed 22nd March 2019] (In Russ.)
3. Valdajcev S.V., Gorlanov G.V. The effectiveness of accelerating scientific and technological progress: a monograph. Leningrad: Publishing House «LGU», 1990. 304 p. (In Russ.)
4. Glaz'ev S.Yu. Russia's Advanced Development Strategy in the Global Crisis: monograph. Мoscow: Economics, 2010. 160 p. (In Russ.)
5. Granberg A.G. Dynamic models of the national economy. Moscow: Economics, 1985. 240 p. (In Russ.)
6. Gohberg L.M. Innovation Indicators. Moscow: Publishing House «GU VShE», 2011. 143 p. (In Russ.)
7. Zemscov M.O. The content and contradiction of the mechanism of structural changes in the economy. Vestnik Kostromskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta im. H.A. Nekrasova. 2003; 1:89–94 (In Russ.)
8. Ivanchenko V. Innovatively structured reproduction and the state. Jekonomist . 2010; 1:30–38 (In Russ.)
9. Kono T. Strategy and Structure of Japanese Enterprises. Macmillan; 1984. 365 p. Available from: https://en.b-ok2.org/book/2673444/ec8362 [Accessed 22nd March 2019] (In Eng.)
10. Maizels A. Commodities in crisis: An overview of the main issues. World Development. 1987; 15(5). Available from: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0305750X87900015 [Accessed 22nd March 2019] (In Eng.)
11. Narula R. Globalization and Technology: Interdependence, Innovation Systems and Industrial Policy. Cambridge: Polity Press, 2003. 243 p. (In Eng.)
12. Shane S. Cultural influences on national rates of innovation. Journal of Business Venturing . 1993; 8(1). Available from: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/088390269390011S [Accessed 22nd March 2019] (In Eng.)
13. Sauer C., Cuthbertson C. The State of IT Project Management in the UK. Oxford: Templeton College, 2003. (In Eng.)
14. March J.G., Shapira Z. Managerial perspectives on risk and risk taking. Management Science . 1987; 33(11). Available from: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/bed0/1b90c5f0b03cd60b20b8ace2ba56c1b2f942.pdf [Accessed 22nd March 2019] (In Eng.)
15. Taylor H. Risk management and problem resolution strategies for IT projects: prescription and practice. Project Management Journal . 2006; 37(5):49–63. https://doi.org/10.1177/875697280603700506 (In Eng.)
16. Charette R.N. Why software fails? IEEE Spectrum. 2005; 42(9):42–49. https://doi.org/10.1109/MSPEC.2005.1502528 (In Eng.)
17. Ward S., Chapman C. Making risk management more effective. The Wiley Guide to Managing Projects. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons, 2004. 875 p. (In Eng.)
18. Barkalov S.A., Bautina E.V., Bekirova O.N., Burkova I.V., Nasonova T.V. Project management: the path to success. Voronezh: Publishing House «RITM» LLC, 2017. 416 p. (In Russ.)
19. Kachalov P.M. Business risk management. Moscow: Nauka, 2002. 192 p. (In Russ.)
20. Kireeva E.A. Innovative risk management based on stochastic graphs and a real option. Jekonomika i menedzhment sistem upravleniya . 2012; 1(3):25–31 (In Russ.)
21. Tanaka H. A viable system model reinforced by meta program management. Procedia – Social and Behavioural Sciences Journal . 2013; 74:135–145. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2013.03.017 (In Eng.)
22. Akimov V.A., Lesnykh V.V., Radaev N.N. Risks in nature, the technosphere, society and the economy. Moscow: Financial Publishing House "Delovoj ekspress" JSC, 2004. 352 p. (In Russ.)
23. Vishnyakov Y.D., Radaev N.N. General risk theory. Moscow: Akademiya, 2008. 368 p. (In Russ.)
24. Dorofeev V.D., Levin D.N., Senators D.V., Chernetsov A.V. Crisis management. Penza: Publishing House "Penza Institute for Economic Development and Crisis Management", 2006. 206 p. (In Russ.)
25. Polkovnikov A.V., Dubovik M.F. Project management. Full MBA course. Moscow: Olimp-Biznes, 2018. 552 p. (In Russ.)
26. Bezdenezhnyh T.I., Kormanovskaya I.R., Kadnichanskaya M.O. Factor approach to risk assessment of regional development (on the example of the Novgorod region). Regional'naya ekonomika: teoriya i praktika . 2015; (32):32–44 (In Russ.)
27. Porfir'ev B.N. Risks and crises: a new direction of social research. Novaya i novejshaya istoriya . 2005; (3):230–238 (In Russ.)
28. Mahmutov N.A. Scientific basis and tasks for the formation of a risk assessment system. Problemy analiza riska . 2009; 6(3):82–91 (In Russ.)
29. Stanislavchik E.N. Risk management in the enterprise. Theory and practice. Moscow: Os’-89; 2002. 80 p. (In Russ.)
30. Barkalov S.A., Bautina E.V., Bekirova O.N., Burkova I.V., Nasonova T.V. Project Management: The Way To Success. Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation, Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education "Voronezh State Technical University", Department of Construction Management. Voronezh: Rhythm, 2017. 415 p. (In Russ.)
31. Burkov V.N., Korobets B.N., Minaev V.A., Schepkin A.V. Models, methods and mechanisms for managing scientific and technical programs. Moscow: Publishing House «MGTU im. N.E. Baumana», 2017. 205 p. (In Russ.)
32. Korobets B.N. Models and methods for the formation of technological programs in the cycle "NIR-OKR-Product" taking into account complex risks. Vestnik Povolzhskogo Gosudarstvennogo Tekhnologicheskogo Universiteta . 2017; 1(3):16–25. https://doi.org/10.15350/2306-2800.2017.1.16 (In Russ.)
Review
For citations:
Uandykova M.K. System Models of Risk Management in the Formation of Programs of Innovative Development of the Region. MIR (Modernization. Innovation. Research). 2019;10(4):487-500. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.18184/2079-4665.2019.10.4.487-500
Views:
804
Email this article 