DEVELOPMENT OF THE ALGORITHM FOR CHOOSING THE OPTIMAL SCENARIO FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE REGION'S ECONOMY

Purpose: the article deals with the development of an algorithm for choosing the optimal scenario for the development of the regional economy. Since the "Strategy for socio-economic development of the Lipetsk region for the period until 2020" does not contain scenarios for the development of the region, the algorithm for choosing the optimal scenario for the development of the regional economy is formalized. The scenarios for the development of the economy of the Lipetsk region according to the indicators of the Program of social and economic development are calculated: "Quality of life index", "Average monthly nominal wage", "Level of registered unemployment", "Growth rate of gross regional product", "The share of innovative products in the total volume of goods shipped, works performed and services rendered by industrial organizations", "Total volume of atmospheric pollution per unit GRP" and "Satisfaction of the population with the activity of executive bodies of state power of the region". Based on the calculation of development scenarios, the dynamics of the values of these indicators was developed in the implementation of scenarios for the development of the economy of the Lipetsk region in 2016–2020. Discounted financial costs of economic participants for realization of scenarios of development of economy of the Lipetsk region are estimated. It is shown that the current situation in the economy of the Russian Federation assumes the choice of a paradigm for the innovative development of territories and requires all participants in economic relations at the regional level to concentrate their resources on the creation of new science-intensive products. An assessment of the effects of the implementation of reasonable scenarios for the development of the economy of the Lipetsk region was carried out. It is shown that the most acceptable is the "base" scenario, which assumes a consistent change in the main indicators. The specific economic effect from the implementation of scenarios for the development of the economy of the Lipetsk region and the specific economic effect per unit of all costs for the scenarios for the development of the economy of the Lipetsk region are analyzed. Methods: the scientific results are based on the main provisions of the neoclassical institutional theory, the principles of sustainable development and the basic postulates of the regional economy. The article uses comparative, tabular, graphical and economic-statistical methods.

Results: the stages of the script justification process are developed and a formalized algorithm for selecting the optimal scenario for the development of the regional economy is formed in conditions of the predominance of a particular type of economic activity allowing the executive bodies of the regional government to use the resource potential of the regional economy to ensure the implementation of strategic changes depending on the activity of participants in the region's economy. It was found that the rationale and choice of the optimal scenario is an important stage in the development of the sustainable development program of the regional economy, since it helps to quantify the most probable trajectories of changes in the activities of all participants in the region's economy.

Conclusions and Relevance: the practical significance of the developed algorithm lies in the possibility of using it to improve the stability of the development of the economy of specific regions. In particular, for the Lipetsk region, the "base" scenario is the most optimal given the resources available in the regional economy and the general state of the economy.

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