INVESTMENT AND INNOVATION FACTORS IN THE MECHANICAL ENGINEERING OF THE REGIONS IN THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PROGRAMME OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE ARCTIC ZONE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

Purpose: development of methodical recommendations about long and medium-term forecasting of an oil and gas complex. Considering a number of the inexact forecasts made in the last 4–8 years and also high dependence of economy of our country on power, on an oil and gas complex – the contribution of problems of forecasting and assessment of strategic alternatives of development of energy industry to national security is still underestimated and demands improvement of methodology of carrying out technical and economic researches in this area.

Methods: of carrying out work: the analysis of regularities of scientific and technological development of the large companies as systems, the analysis of normative documents, the system analysis, models on the basis of game theory, scenario approach, Forsythe's elements.

Results: accounting of features of the integrated structure of the company when forecasting prospects of her technological development; modeling of results of adaptation of activity of the vertically integrated oil and oil and gas companies to short-term changes of price dynamics; recommendations about improvement of methodology of creation of corporate scenarios of technological development.

Conclusions and relevance: vertically integrated companiesareabrightexampleofhowmining-and-geologicalandinfrastructurerestrictions set to technological progress others, in comparison with predicted, rates of realization of new technologies and the direction them evolution now. "The built-in defects the" of methods applied in the course of Forsythe can be compensated or are even eliminated if in the course of obtaining expert answers, and in processing of results of poll to apply a number of basic regularities of long-term technical and economic development and also modern developments in the field of scenario approach, the system analysis and game theory.

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