Inflationary risks of EU sanctions pressure on the Russian gas industry

    Purpose: is to assess the impact of EU sanctions on the dynamics of inflation in the Russian Federation in 2022-2023, caused, among other things, by rising gas prices for the population in the context of a decrease in revenue from gas sales by Gazprom due to a decrease in Russian natural gas exports to Europe.

   Methods: the research used statistical analysis, comparative analysis, financial analysis of the company, synthesis, deduction, graphical method, econometric modeling.

   Results: the structure and dynamics of Russia's natural gas exports are assessed. A financial analysis of Gazprom has been conducted. An assessment of the dynamics of gas prices for the population and their impact on the CPI, as well as a comparative analysis of forecasted utility prices, including gas prices for the population, has been performed.

   Conclusions and Relevance: in the context of the Nord Stream diversions, reduced transit of Russian natural gas through Ukraine and sanctions shocks in 2022–2023, Russian natural gas exports, mainly pipeline gas, decreases to Europe, with partial reorientation of supplies to China and the domestic market. It affects the dynamics of Gazprom's net profit, the fall of which partially compensates by the growth of prices for network and liquefied gas to the population with the planned indexation increase in 2024–2025. In turn, it further stimulates the growth of inflation, which is most influenced by the CPI on services, in the context of linking the indexation of utility tariffs to the forecast average annual inflation. Identification and control over endogenous and controllable factors of inflation growth, which include gas prices' indexation to the population, improve the effectiveness of Russia's anti-inflationary policy in the conditions of forcing inflationary pressure on the Russian economy.

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