The World after COVID-19: the Necessity of Transition to a New Development Paradigm
https://doi.org/10.18184/2079-4665.2021.12.3.254-273
- Р Р‡.МессенРТвЂВВВВВВВВжер
- РћРТвЂВВВВВВВВнокласснРСвЂВВВВВВВВРєРСвЂВВВВВВВВ
- LiveJournal
- Telegram
- ВКонтакте
- РЎРєРѕРїРСвЂВВВВВВВВровать ссылку
Full Text:
Abstract
This article is a continuation of a large-scale research devoted to the identification of patterns of human community development, which has been conducted by the author for many decades.
Purpose: is to study the possible transformation of the world after the COVID-19 pandemic from the perspective of the need to switch to a new, crisis-free development paradigm, which is a logical continuation of the previous author's works.
Methods: the study is based on the application of a complex of general scientific methods, including analysis, generalization, comparison, etc., and is based on an interdisciplinary approach. The results and conclusions of the work are based on the use of the author's methodological tools, which were formed within the framework of the general research direction.
Results: the article analyzes the current state of the global world in the absence of effective ways out of the deepest crisis that has long gripped almost the entire world and has been multiplied by the COVID-19 pandemic. The study of the fundamental works of foreign scientists has shown that their main thesis is that the future of the world lies in the transition to a new development paradigm (NDP), but to fully understand it, it is necessary to develop a new scientific paradigm (NSP). Based on the use of the author's development of the NSP, it is demonstrated that the future of the world depends on the choice of a development model. The author has proved the necessity and possibility of transition to a new development paradigm based on the synchronous development and implementation of a single development strategy for the global world and each country separately.
Conclusions and Relevance: after the COVID-19 pandemic, the world will change only if there is a transition to a new crisis-free paradigm for the development of the human system. The NSP developed by the author can become the tool that allows you to give a complete understanding of the NDP, and see what the world can and should be like after the coronavirus pandemic.
About the Author
V. M. BondarenkoRussian Federation
Leading Researcher, Center for Socio-Economic Development Institutions, Candidate of Economic Sciences,
32, Nakhimovsky prospekt, Moscow, 117218
References
1. Grinin L.E. Pandemic, Geopoltics and Recession. History and modernity = Istoriya i sovremennost'. 2020; 1(35):3-22. https://doi.org/10.30884/iis/2020.01.01 (In Russ.)
2. Shrestha N., Shad M.Y., Ulvi O., Khan M.H., KaramehicMuratovic A., Nguyen U.-S.D.T., Baghbanzadeh M., Wardrup R., Aghamohammadi N., Cervantes D., Nahiduzzaman K.M., Zaki R.A., Haque U. The impact of COVID-19 on globalization. One Health. 2020; (11):100180. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.onehlt.2020.100180. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352771420302810 (In Eng.)
3. Aven T., Zio E. Globalization and global risk: How risk analysis needs to be enhanced to be effective in confronting current threats. Reliability Engineering & System Safety. 2021; (205):107270. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2020.107270. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832020307687 (In Eng.)
4. Delios A., Perchthold G., Capri A. Cohesion, COVID-19 and contemporary challenges to globalization. Journal of World Business. 2021; 56(3):101197. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jwb.2021.101197. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1090951621000092 (In Eng.)
5. Zameer H., Shahbaz M., Vo X.V. Reinforcing poverty alleviation efficiency through technological innovation, globalization, and financial development. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2020; (161):120326. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120326. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162520311525 (In Eng.)
6. Schwab K., Malleret T. About COVID-19: The Great Reset. In: World Economic Forum. Cologny/ Geneva: Forum Publishing, 2020. 212 p. URL: https://straight2point.info/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/COVID-19_-The-Great-Reset-Klaus-Schwab.pdf (In Eng.)
7. Acemoglu D., Robinson J.A. Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty. New York: Crown Business, 2012. URL: https://norayr.am/collections/books/Why-Nations-Fail-DaronAcemoglu.pdf (In Eng.)
8. Grinin L., Korotayev A. Global Population Ageing, the Sixth Kondratieff Wave, and the Global Financial System. Journal of Globalization Studies. 2016; 7(2):11-31 (In Eng.)
9. Glazyev S.Yu. The modern theory of long wales in economic development. Economics of Contemporary Russia. 2012; (2):27-42 (In Russ.)
10. Klinov V.G. The evolution of long wales in the world economy. Studies on Russian Economic Development. 2015; 26(3):285-294. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1075700715030077 (In Eng.)
11. Kondratieff N.D. Large business cycles. In: Kondratieff N.D. Selected works. Moscow: Economy, 1993. 542 p. R. 24-83 (In Russ.)
12. Kondratieff N.D. The Static and Dynamic View of Economics. Quarterly Journal of Economics. 1925b; 39(2):575-583 (In Eng.).
13. Mitchell W.C. Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting. New York: NBER, 1927. 519 p. (In Eng.).
14. Schumpeter J.A. Business Cycles: A Theoretical, Historical, and Statistical Analysis of the Capitalist Process. New York, London: McGraw-Hill Book Company Inc., 1939. 461 p. (In Eng.)
15. Haberler G. Prosperity and Depression: a Theoretical Analysis of Cyclical Movements. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1964. 508 p. (In Eng.)
16. Juglar C. Des srises sommerciales et de leur retour périodique en France, en Angleterre et aux ÉtatsUnis. Paris: Guillaumin, 1862. 258 p. (In French)
17. Tugan-Baranovsky M.I. Industrial crises in modern England, their causes and immediate impact on the life of the people. St. Petersburg, 1894. 512 p. (In Russ.)
18. Kondratiev N.D., Oparin D.I. Large cycles of conjuncture. Reports and their discussion at the Institute of Economics. Moscow: Institute of Economics, 1928. 287 p. (In Russ.)
19. Kitchin J. Cycles and Trends in Economic Factors. The Review of Economics and Statistics. 1923; 5(1):10-16. URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/1927031.pdf (In Eng.)
20. Kuznets S.S. Secular Movements in Production and Prices: Their Nature and Their Bearing upon Cyclical Fluctuations. Boston and New York: Houghton Mifflin Company, 1930. p. xxiv, 536. (In Eng.)
21. Hayek F. Monetary Theory and Trade Cycle. London: Jonathan Cape, 1933. URL: https://archive.org/details/MonetaryTheoryAndTheTradeCycle5 (In Eng.)
22. Garvy G. Kondratieff’s Theory of Long Cycles. The Review of Economic Statistics. 1943; 25(4):203-220. https://doi.org/10.2307/1927337 (In Eng.)
23. Forrester J.W. The Kondratieff Cycle and Changing Economic Conditions. MIT System Dynamics Group working paper. Cambridge, 1981 (In Eng.)
24. Menshikov S. Structural crisis of the economy of capitalism. Communist. 1984; (4):112-124 (In Russ.)
25. Nikitin S. The theory of "long waves" and scientific and technological progress. World Economy and International Relations. 1986; (8):101-110 (In Russ.)
26. Shishkov Yu.V. On Some Concepts of Economic Development ("Long Waves": Search for an Explanation). The working class and the modern world. 1986; (1):62-82 (In Russ.)
27. Freeman C. Technical Innovation, Diffusion, and Long Cycles of Economic Development. In: Vasko T. (eds). The Long-Wave Debate. Springer, Berlin: Heidelberg, 1987. P. 295-309. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-10351-7_21 (In Eng.)
28. Fontvielle L. Preference. In: Kondratieff N.D. Les Grandes de la Conjoncture. Paris: Economica, 1992. (In Eng.)
29. Bernanke B., Gertler M., Gilchrist S. The Financial Accelerator in Quantitative Business Cycle Framework. NBER Working Paper No 6455. Cambridge, MA: NBER, 1998. URL: https://faculty.wcas.northwestern.edu/~lchrist/papers/handbook.pdf (In Eng.)
30. Rumyantseva S.Yu. Long waves in economics: multivariate analysis. St. Petersburg, 2003. 228 p. (In Russ.)
31. Minsky H.P. Induced Investment and Business Cycles. Cheltenham, UK; Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2005. 272 p. (In Eng.)
32. Klinov V. World Economy Long Cycle Modifications: Causes, Forms and Conseguences. International journal of Management theory and practice. 2016; (6):97-102 (In Russ.)
33. Kuhn T. The structure of scientific revolutions. Chicago, 1962; 2 ed. Chicago, London: University of Chicago Press Ltd, 1970. 210 p. (In Eng.)
34. Barrera J., Saura-Mas S., Blanco A. Transperformative education: toward a new educational paradigm based on transdisciplinarity and artistic performativity. World Futures. 2018; 75(2):275-297. https://doi.org/10.1080/02604027.2018.1463761 (In Eng.)
35. Laszlo E. Evolution: The new paradigm. World Futures. 1987; 23(3):151-160. https://doi.org/10.1080/02604027.1987.9972044 (In Eng.)
36. Ivo Šlaus, Garry Jacobs. In Search of a New Paradigm for Global Development. CADMUS. 2013; 1(6):119-120. URL: https://cadmusjournal.org/node/290 (In Eng.)
37. Weizsäcker E.V., Wijkman A. Come On! Capitalism, Short-termism, Population and the Destruction of the Planet. A Report to the Club of Rome. 2018. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4939-7419-1. URL: https:// batrachos.com/sites/default/files/pictures/Books/Weizsacker_Wijkman_2018_Come on.pdf (In Eng.)
38. Jacobs G. New Paradigm: The Necessity and the Opportunity. CADMUS. 2014; 2(2):9-23. URL: https://cadmusjournal.org/files/pdfreprints/vol2issue2/reprint-cj-v2-i2-new-paradigm-thenecessity-gjacobs.pdf (In Eng.)
39. Jacobs G. A New Paradigm of Life and Consciousness. World Futures. 2017; 73(6):365-375. https://doi.org/10.1080/02604027.2017.1366792 (In Eng.)
40. Phillips F. From my perspective: The globalization paradox. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2018; (143):319-320. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2018.06.016 (In Eng.)
41. Boethii. Philosophiae consolation / ed. Ludouicus Bieler. Corpus christianorum, Series Latina, XCIV. Turnholt: Brepols, 1957 (In Eng.)
42. Bridle H., Vrieling A., Cardillo M., Araya Y., Hinojosa L. Preparing for an interdisciplinary future: A perspective from early-career researchers. Futures. 2013; (53):22-32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.09.003 (In Eng.)
Review
For citations:
Bondarenko V.M. The World after COVID-19: the Necessity of Transition to a New Development Paradigm. MIR (Modernization. Innovation. Research). 2021;12(3):254-273. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.18184/2079-4665.2021.12.3.254-273
ISSN 2411-796X (Online)