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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">mir</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">МИР (Модернизация. Инновации. Развитие)</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>MIR (Modernization. Innovation. Research)</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2079-4665</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2411-796X</issn><publisher><publisher-name>School of Public Administration</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">mir-521</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>РАЗВИТИЕ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>RESEARCH</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ ОСНОВЫ УПРАВЛЕНИЯ КРЕДИТНЫМ РИСКОМ В УСЛОВИЯХ НЕОПРЕДЕЛЕННОСТИ</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>ECONOMIC GROUNDS FOR CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT UNDER UNCERTAINTY</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Стрельников</surname><given-names>Н. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Strelnikov</surname><given-names>N. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>аспирант</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Postgraduate, Faculty of Law and Economics</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">nikorai@hotmail.co.jp</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>МГЛУ</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Moscow State Linguistic University</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2012</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>22</day><month>12</month><year>2012</year></pub-date><volume>3</volume><issue>4(12)</issue><fpage>131</fpage><lpage>135</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Стрельников Н., 2016</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2016</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Стрельников Н.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Strelnikov N.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.mir-nayka.com/jour/article/view/521">https://www.mir-nayka.com/jour/article/view/521</self-uri><abstract><p>В статье исследуются современные способы страхования кредитных рисков с использованием свопов кредитного дефолта. Рассмотрен механизм действия кредитных свопов, определены параметры расчета их стоимости. Проанализирован ряд эффективных методов математического моделирования риска. На основе модели Дж. Халла предложен метод расчета спреда свопа,величина которого зависит от вероятности дефолта и коэффициента убыточности облигации.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>This article examines modern financial insurance techniques with the use of credit default swaps for covering bond default risk. The author examines several mathematical models and specifies variables necessary to determine the swap spread depending on the structure of a swap contract and conditions for a set-off. The author suggests implementing J. Hull’s risk model based on default probability and loss ratio estimates.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>своп кредитного дефолта</kwd><kwd>математическое моделирование</kwd><kwd>оценка риска</kwd><kwd>риск-менеджмент</kwd><kwd>страховой капитал</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>credit default swap</kwd><kwd>mathematical modeling</kwd><kwd>risk evaluation</kwd><kwd>solvency</kwd><kwd>risk management</kwd><kwd>insurance reserves</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Bharath S. Forecasting Default with KMV-Merton Model. Review of Financial Studies. University of Michigan, USA. 2008, pp. 1339–1369.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Bharath S. Forecasting Default with KMV-Merton Model. Review of Financial Studies. 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