mirМИР (Модернизация. Инновации. Развитие)MIR (Modernization. Innovation. Research)2079-46652411-796XSchool of Public Administration10.18184/2079-4665.2025.16.3.488-504mir-1992Research ArticleИННОВАЦИИINNOVATIONЭкономическая оценка целесообразности внедрения квантовых коммуникаций в энергетической отраслиEconomic assessment of reasonability of introducing quantum communications in the energy sectorhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9548-2502ЛобовД. С.LobovD. S.

Лобов Даниил Сергеевич, кандидат экономических наук, научный сотрудник лаборатории новых полупроводниковых материалов для квантовой информатики и телекоммуникаций; менеджер, ООО «Кэпт Налоги и Консультирование» (Москва)

Scopus ID: 57353047600

Санкт-Петербург

Daniil S. Lobov, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Research Fellow, Laboratory of New Semiconductor Materials for Quantum Information Science and Telecommunications; Manager, Kept LLC (Moscow)

Scopus ID: 57353047600

Saint Petersburg

d.lobov96@yandex.ruСанкт-Петербургский государственный университетРоссияSaint-Petersburg State UniversityRussian Federation202517092025163488504Copyright © Лобов Д.С., 20252025Лобов Д.С.Lobov D.S.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.mir-nayka.com/jour/article/view/1992

Цель – оценка экономической целесообразности проведения квантовой трансформации функции информационной безопасности на примере объектов энергетической отрасли.

Методы

Методы. В работе применяется авторская модель оценки экономической эффективности проведения квантовой трансформации функции информационной безопасности, основанная на подходах к анализу вероятности реализации рисков, связанных с созданием квантового компьютера, а также к оценке инвестиций, необходимых для внедрения инновационных решений в области квантовых коммуникаций. Расчет проведен на примере ПАО «Русгидро», данные по компании собраны в открытых источниках и годовых отчетах.

Результаты работы

Результаты работы. Проведена апробация модели оценки экономической эффективности проведения квантовой трансформации функции информационной безопасности. Улучшена «теорема Моска» в области прогнозирования сроков квантовой трансформации с учетом фактора экономической эффективности инвестиционного проекта. Разработаны рекомендации по внедрению оборудования квантового распределения ключей и постквантовых алгоритмов в долгосрочной перспективе.

Выводы

Выводы. Предложенная оригинальная модель позволяет оценить экономическую эффективность внедрения технологий квантовых коммуникаций, а обновленная «теорема Моска» – определить экономически обоснованные сроки реализации квантовой трансформации. Исследование показало, что квантовые коммуникации могут представлять наибольший интерес для компаний-владельцев ключевых объектов критической информационной инфраструктуры, обеспечивающих высокие показатели выручки. Чем выше децентрализация инфраструктурных объектов и ниже риск финансовых потерь в результате простоя, тем менее экономически эффективны проекты по внедрению квантовых коммуникаций. Так, для защиты множества интеллектуальных подстанций в рамках Smart Grid рекомендуется применять постквантовые математические алгоритмы, не требующие значительных капитальных вложений. Полученные результаты могут представлять практическую пользу для участников квантового рынка в России: регулятора, научно-исследовательских центров, коммерческих разработчиков решений, потенциальных клиентов.

Purpose

Purpose: evaluation of economic reasonability of quantum transformation of the information security function using the example of energy sector facilities.

Methods

Methods: the paper uses the author's model for assessing the economic efficiency of quantum transformation of the information security function, based on approaches to analyzing the probability of risks associated with the creation of a quantum computer, as well as to assessing the investments required to implement innovative solutions in the field of quantum communications. The calculation was carried out on the example of PJSC RusHydro; data on the company were collected from open sources and annual reports.

Results

Results: the model for assessing the economic efficiency of quantum transformation of the information security function was tested. The Mosca’s Theorem was improved in the field of forecasting the timing of quantum transformation, taking into account the factor of economic efficiency of investment projects. Recommendations for implementing quantum key distribution equipment and post-quantum algorithms in the long term were developed.

Conclusions and Relevance: the proposed original model allows assessing the economic efficiency of implementing quantum communications technologies, and the updated Mosca’s Theorem allows determining the economically justified timeframes for quantum transformation. The study showed that quantum communications may be of greatest interest to companies that own key critical information infrastructure facilities that provide high revenue figures. The higher the decentralization of infrastructure facilities is and the lower the risk of financial losses due to downtime is, the less economically efficient the projects for implementing quantum communications are. Thus, to protect multiple intelligent substations within the Smart Grid, it is recommended to use post-quantum mathematical algorithms that do not require significant capital investments. The results obtained may be of practical use for participants in the quantum market in Russia: the regulator, research centers, commercial developers of solutions, and potential clients.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.