mirМИР (Модернизация. Инновации. Развитие)MIR (Modernization. Innovation. Research)2079-46652411-796XSchool of Public Administration10.18184/2079-4665.2025.16.1.153-166mir-1830Research ArticleРАЗВИТИЕRESEARCHОценка цикличности фискальной политики в странах ЕАЭСAssessment of the cyclical nature of fiscal policy in the EAEU countrieshttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2169-4190ДемидоваС. Е.DemidovaS. E.

Демидова Светлана Евгеньевна, кандидат экономических наук, доцент, доцент кафедры общественных финансов Финансового факультета

Scopus ID: 5720801 

Москва 

Svetlana E. Demidova, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Associate Professor of the Department of Public Finance, Faculty of Finance

Scopus ID: 5720801 

Moscow 

demidovapsk@gmail.comФинансовый университет при Правительстве Российской ФедерацииРоссияFinancial University under the Government of the Russian FederationRussian Federation202517032025161153166Copyright © Демидова С.Е., 20252025Демидова С.Е.Demidova S.E.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.mir-nayka.com/jour/article/view/1830

Цель статьи – оценка цикличности фискальной политики через анализ государственного долга, бюджетных расходов и налоговых ставок по отдельным налогам для группы стран, входящих в Евразийский экономический союз.

Методы

Методы. Методологическую основу исследования составили концепция фискального пространства, системный подход, динамический анализ. Регрессионный анализ проводился методом наименьших квадратов на панельных данных. Для оценки цикличности фискальной политики фискальными переменными выбраны темпы роста бюджетных расходов и налоговые ставки, мерой экономической активности служат темпы роста реального ВВП. Применялись методы экономико-статистического анализа, научной абстракции, аналогий, научных обобщений, экспертных оценок.

Результаты работы

Результаты работы. В странах ЕАЭС выявлено слабое влияние уровня государственного долга на экономический рост, подтверждены контрцикличность бюджетных расходов и налоговых ставок в рассмотренный период, хотя большинство научных работ подтверждают проциклический характер фискальной политики в развивающихся экономиках. Исследование показало, что страны являются фискально контрциклическими по налогам на добавленную стоимость, прибыль организаций, доходы физических лиц. В представленных моделях по налогу на добавленную стоимость отмечена очень слабая контрцикличность.

Выводы

Выводы. Полученные оценки в целом подтверждают вывод о контрциклическом характере фискальной политики стран ЕАЭС в оцениваемый период, в том числе по налогу на добавленную стоимость. Последний в основном характеризуется ациклическим поведением. Одной из причин такого проявления может быть характер и специфика фискального регулирования в стране. Уровень государственного долга оказывает слабое влияние на динамику экономического роста в данной группе стран по причине незначительного объема и сдержанного роста. При этом важную роль играет институциональный базис. Полученные результаты могут быть использованы как в дальнейших исследованиях вопросов фискальной политики, так и при принятии политических решений, особенно в контексте прогнозов долговременного увеличения долга и потребности в наращивании государственных расходов.

Purpose

Purpose: is to assess the cyclical nature of fiscal policy through the analysis of government debt, budget expenditures and tax rates on individual taxes for a group of countries belonging to the Eurasian Economic Union.

Methods

Methods: the methodological basis of the study was the concept of fiscal space, a systematic approach, and dynamic analysis. Regression analysis was performed using the least squares method on panel data. To assess the cyclical nature of fiscal policy, the fiscal variables are the growth rates of government spending and tax rates, the growth rate of real GDP serves as a measure of economic activity. The methods of economic and statistical analysis, scientific abstraction, analogies, scientific generalizations, and expert assessments were used.

Results

Results: in the EAEU countries, a weak influence of the public debt level on economic growth has been revealed. The countercyclical nature of budget expenditures and tax rates has been confirmed over the considered time horizon, although most scientific papers confirm the procyclical nature of fiscal policy in emerging economies. The study showed that countries are fiscally countercyclical in terms of valueadded tax, corporate income tax, and personal income tax. The presented models on value-added tax show a very weak countercyclical nature.

Conclusions and Relevance: the estimates obtained indicate that, in general, the conclusion regarding the countercyclical nature of fiscal policy in the EAEU countries during the period under review, including regarding value added tax, is supported. The latter is primarily characterized by an acyclic pattern. One reason for this may be the nature and specifics of fiscal regulations. The level of public debt has only a minor impact on the dynamics of economic growth in this group of countries, due to its low volume and moderate growth. At the same time, institutional factors play a significant role. The results obtained can be used both in further studies of fiscal policy issues and in making policy decisions, especially in the context of forecasts of a long-term increase in debt and the need to increase government spending.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.