mirМИР (Модернизация. Инновации. Развитие)MIR (Modernization. Innovation. Research)2079-46652411-796XSchool of Public Administration10.18184/2079-4665.2023.14.2.207-223mir-1450Research ArticleМОДЕРНИЗАЦИЯMODERNIZATIONИндикаторы развития кризисов и финансовое поведение субъектов глобальной экономической системы в кризисные периодыIndicators of crisis development and financial behavior of subjects of the global economic system in crisis periodshttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7764-5566РомашкинаГ. Ф.RomashkinaG. F.

Гульнара Фатыховна Ромашкина -  доктор социологических наук; профессор; профессор кафедры экономической безопасности, системного анализа и контроля Финансово-экономического института Researcher ID O-7221-2017Scopus ID 57219916692

Тюмень

Gulnara F. Romashkina -  Doctor of Sociological Sciences, Professor; Professor of the Department of Economic Security, System Analysis and ControlResearcher ID O-7221-2017Scopus ID 57219916692

Tyumen

g.f.romashkina@utmn.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3773-9098СкрипнюкД. Ф.SkripnukD. F.

Джамиля Фатыховна Скрипнюк - доктор экономических наук, профессор; профессор Высшей школы бизнес-инжинирингаResearcher ID: A-4838-2016 Scopus ID: 56104974500

Санкт-Петербург

Djamilia F. Skripnuk - Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor; Professor of the Higher School of Business EngineeringResearcher ID A-4838-2016 Scopus ID: 56104974500

Saint-Petersburg

skripnyuk.d@spbstu.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4135-0878АндриановК. В.AndrianovK. V.

Кирилл Владимирович Андрианов - аспирант кафедры экономической безопасности, системного анализа и контроля Финансово- экономического институтаResearcher ID: GLQ-9942-2022

Тюмень

Kirill V. Andrianov -  Postgraduate Student of the Department of Economic Security, System Analysis and ControlResearcher ID: GLQ-9942-2022

Tyumen

kirvland@yandex.ruТюменский государственный университетРоссияTyumen State UniversityRussian FederationСанкт-Петербургский политехнический университет Петра ВеликогоРоссияPeter the Great St.Petersburg Polytechnic UniversityRussian Federation202306072023142207223Copyright © Ромашкина Г.Ф., Скрипнюк Д.Ф., Андрианов К.В., 20232023Ромашкина Г.Ф., Скрипнюк Д.Ф., Андрианов К.В.Romashkina G.F., Skripnuk D.F., Andrianov K.V.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.mir-nayka.com/jour/article/view/1450

Цель: сформировать оценочные индикаторы развития кризисов на основе анализа финансового поведения субъектов глобальной экономической системы в различные кризисные периоды.Методы: количественный и качественный анализ периодизации кризисов по оценочным индикаторам, рассчитанным по данным Мирового банка; ретроспективный, сравнительный анализ финансового поведения субъектов глобальной экономической системы. Результаты работы. Сформированы оценочные индикаторы развития кризисов. Систематизированы методы и подходы к изучению развития кризисов на основе анализа финансового поведения субъектов глобальной экономической системы в кризисные периоды. Показано, что в числе оценочных индикаторов развития кризисов может выступать состояние платежного баланса. Скачки цен на нефть могут также предварять наступление кризисов. Золото поднимается в цене в процессе и сразу после кризиса, играя роль резервной валюты. Размах вариации темпов прироста показателей денежной массы, рыночной капитализации компаний и внутреннего кредита снижается в рассматриваемом временном периоде.Выводы. Выделены оценочные индикаторы развития кризисов, способные выступать как система опережающих индикаторов кризисных процессов в условиях увеличения объемов глобальной экономики и усиления неустойчивости мировой финансовой системы. Финансовый сектор мировой экономики становится все более оторванным от реального сектора. Фактически, финансовый сектор и государственные институты переводят риски в глобальную экономическую систему, создавая при этом новые правила финансового поведения субъектов глобальной экономической системы. Предлагается опережающие индикаторы кризисных процессов рассматривать как систему, способную формировать базовые факторы финансового поведения субъектов глобальной экономической системы в кризисные периоды. Усиление влияния новых технологий, включая передовые информационно-коммуникационные, в условиях расширения многообразия моделей и систем взаимодействия индивидуальных агентов и институциональных систем способно как выступать безусловным двигателем экономического развития, так и провоцировать сильнейшие кризисы в глобальной экономической системе.

Purpose: is to form evaluative indicators of crises based on the analysis of financial behavior of subjects of the global economic system during various crisis periods.Methods: quantitative and qualitative analysis of the crises’ periodization, according to evaluative indicators calculated on the World Bank data; retrospective, comparative analysis of the financial behavior of subjects of the global economic system were used. Results: evaluative indicators of crises are formed. Methods and approaches to the study of crises are systematized based on the analysis of the financial behavior of subjects of the global economic system in crisis periods. It is shown that the state of the balance of payments can be among the evaluative indicators of crises. The spikes of the oil prices can also anticipate a crisis. The gold rises in price during and immediately after crisis, serving as a reserve currency. In this time, there is a decrease in the scale of variation in the growth rates of indicators of money supply, companies’ market capitalization and domestic credit.Conclusions and Relevance: the identified evaluative indicators can act as a system of leading indicators of crisis processes, in conditions of an increase in the global economy volume and the intensifying instability of the global financial system. It is shown that the financial sector of the world economy is increasingly detached from the real sector. The financial sector and state institutions, using various risk reduction tools, transfer risks to the global economic system, which leads to the development of new rules of financial behavior of the subjects of the global economic system in crisis periods. It is proposed to consider the leading indicators of crisis processes as a system that can form the basic factors of financial behavior of subjects of the global economic system in crisis periods, determining the directions of stability of the world economic system. The strengthening of the influence of new technologies, including advanced information and communication technologies, in the context of expanding the diversity of models and systems of interaction of individual agents and institutional systems can both act as an unconditional engine of economic development and provokes the strongest crises in the global economic system.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.